The 15 Best Housing Markets for the Next Five Years

By Mamta Badkar | Business Insider – Fri, Nov 30, 2012 3:34 PM EST

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  Yahoo! Finance/Thinkstock - Santa Barbara, California

National home prices are expected to climb 0.3 percent in the next year, according to the latest home price report by Fiserv Case-Shiller. But over the next five years, home prices are projected to rise 3.3 percent.

We drew on Fiserv Case-Shiller data to identify the best housing markets for the next five years. The top 15 cities are ranked by the projected annualized change in home prices between Q2 2012 and Q2 2017. We also included the median home price, median household income, unemployment rate, and the change in home prices since their peak to offer a broader view of the local economy and housing market.

Note: The median family income is for Q1 2012, home price data is for Q2 2012. Unemployment data is as of August 2012, and population data is for 2011.

Glens Falls, New York

Google MapsAnnualized expected growth from 2012 - 2017: 7.7 percent

Home prices have declined 7.8 percent in Glen Falls since they peaked in Q4 2008. The median home price is $159,000 which is lower than the national median of $181,000.

Glen Falls has a population of 128,996, an unemployment rate of 9.1 percent, and a median family income of $64,300.


Yuma, Arizona

Google MapsAnnualized expected growth from 2012 - 2017: 7.7 percent

Home prices have fallen 37.1 percent in Yuma since their Q4 2006 peak.

It has a population of 200,870, an unemployment rate of 25.8 percent, and a median family income of $45,400, lower than the national median of $62,900.



Eugene-Springfield, Oregon

Wikimedia CommonsAnnualized expected growth from 2012 - 2017: 7.7 percent

Eugene-Springfield home prices have decreased 22.9 percent since their Q2 2007 peak. The metro has a population of 353,416, an unemployment rate of 8.8 percent, and a median family income of $53,200.




Yakima, Washington

Wikimedia CommonsAnnualized expected growth from 2012 - 2017: 7.8 percent

Home prices in Yakima are down 8.1 percent since their Q1 2009 peak. It has a median home price of $168,800.

Yakima also has a population of 247,141, an unemployment rate of 10.2 percent, and a median family income of $47,800.



Brunswick, Georgia

Wikimedia CommonsAnnualized expected growth from 2012 - 2017: 7.9 percent

Home prices in Brunswick have tumbled 32.3 percent since their Q4 2007 peak.

It has a population of 112,923, an unemployment rate of 10.4 percent, and a median family income of $50,500, that is below the national median.


Tucson, Arizona

Byways.orgAnnualized expected growth from 2012 - 2017: 7.9 percent

Tucson's home prices have plunged 42.6 percent since their Q1 2006 peak, and it has median home price of $153,000.

It also has a population of 989,569, a median family income of $57,400, and an unemployment rate of 7.5 percent.



Gulfport-Biloxi, Mississippi

Ed Schipul / FlickrAnnualized expected growth from 2012 - 2017: 8.0 percent

Home prices in the Gulfport-Biloxi metro area have slipped 20.4 percent since their Q4 2007 peak, and the metro has a median home price of $101,000.

It has a population of 253,511, an unemployment rate of 8.4 percent and a median household income of $52,700.


Napa, California

Google MapsAnnualized expected growth from 2012 - 2017: 8.0 percent

Home prices in Napa have plunged 50.1 percent since they peaked in Q1 2006, and the city has a median home price of $342,000.

Napa has a population of 138,088, an unemployment rate of 8.1 percent, and a median family income of $77,700 above the national median.

Ocala, Florida

Annualized expected growth from 2012 - 2017: 8.0 percent

Home prices in Ocala are down 49.1 percent from their Q3 2006 peak.

But Ocala has a high unemployment rate of 10.1 percent, a median family income of $44,600, well below the national median of $62,900, and a median home price of $105,000.


Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta, California

Wikimedia CommonsAnnualized expected growth from 2012 - 2017: 8.4 percent

The Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta metro area has a population of 426,878, a median family income of $69,000, and an unemployment rate of 8.1 percent.

Home prices are down 52 percent from their Q3 2006 peak, and the metro has a median home price of $290,000.


Sebastian-Vero Beach, Florida

Google MapsAnnualized expected growth from 2012 - 2017: 8.7 percent

Sebastian-Vero Beach home prices have fallen 50.9 percent since their Q4 2005 peak.

The metro has an unemployment rate of 10.6 percent, and a median family income of $58,600, while the median cost of a home is $150,000.


Madera-Chowchilla, California

Google MapsAnnualized expected growth from 2012 - 2017: 8.8 percent

Home prices in the Madera-Chowchilla metro area have fallen 54 percent since their peak in the third quarter of 2006.

At 14.2 percent, the unemployment rate is much higher than the national average of 8.1. The metro has a population of 152,925 and a low median family income of $52,700.


Santa Fe, New Mexico

Wikimedia CommonsAnnualized expected growth from 2012 - 2017: 8.9 percent

Santa Fe's home prices have fallen 21.7 percent from their Q4 2007 peak. The city has a population of 145,648, an unemployment rate of 5.4 percent below the national average, and a median household income of $59,600, below the national median of $62,900.



Panama City-Lynn Haven-Panama City Beach, Florida

Wikimedia CommonsAnnualized expected growth from 2012 - 2017: 9.5 percent

Home prices in the Panama City-Lynn Haven-Panama City Beach metro area have fallen 45.3 percent since their Q1 2006 peak. It now has a median home price of $137,000.

The metro has a population of 169,856, an unemployment rate of 8.8 percent, and a median family income of $56,300.


Medford, Oregon

Bailey Weaver / FlickrAnnualized expected growth from 2012 - 2017: 11.2 percent

Medford's home prices have fallen 39.8 percent since their peak in Q2 2006. The metro has a population of 204,822 and median family income of $49,600.

At 10.8 percent Medford's unemployment rate is higher than the national average.

Measure 79

As you may have heard Measure 79 is on the ballot for the November 6^thelection. This measure was created to preemptively block any future tax on the transfer of any interest in real property in Oregon. As a REALTOR® and advocate for private property rights, I fully support this measure. Homes are the most significant asset that people invest in and a transfer tax wouldn’t just impact the sale of a home, it would affect ANY transfer of a title on any real property. So it would potentially impact refinancing, transferring an inheritance, deeding land, etc. Any transfer tax will place an additional burden on property owners and will ultimately diminish the equity that they have worked so hard to build, if they even have any equity after the past 4 years of economic struggle. As our economy starts to show slow signs of recovery, an additional tax now would undo the progress that has been made.

As a real estate expert I want to pass onto you the importance of Measure 79 and how it will protect the equity you have in your property as well as reducing the cost of purchasing a home or passing your asset to a loved one in the future. Please help me in passing on the message that ‘Yes on 79’ helps today’s as well as tomorrow’s property owner. Please visit www.yesonmeasure79.com for more information.

A "Yes" vote on Measure 79 will stop state and local governments from imposing a new tax on real estate in Oregon.

  

 

 

 

Home prices jump 2.2% in May

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- In a sign that the U.S. housing market is recovering, home prices rose for the second straight month in May, according to an industry report issued Tuesday.  Home prices climbed 2.2% compared with a month earlier, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index. Prices are still off 0.7% compared with May 2011, but that's the lowest year-over-year decline in 18 months, according to David Blitzer, a spokesman for S&P.   The report gave support for industry experts who have been saying that the long-awaited housing market recovery is underway. But Blitzer sounded a note of caution.  "We need to remember that spring and early summer are seasonally strong buying months so this trend must continue throughout the summer and into the fall," he said.  Adjusted for seasonal effect, the price gain shrank to 0.9%, but that's still a strong increase.  The roller coaster ride for home prices took them up 106.5% between January 2000 and their high of July 2006. After they peaked, prices lost more than 34% of their value. The gains of the last two months have pared that loss to 33%. 

 All 20 cities in the index posted positive returns, led by Chicago, where prices rose a whopping 4.5% month-over-month. In Atlanta, where prices dropped 17% over the 12 months ended in April, turned that around in May with an increase of 4%.   Other big winners were San Francisco, up 3.9%, and Minneapolis, where prices rose 3%. The smallest gain was recorded by Detroit, where prices inched up 0.4%. Phoenix posted the best annual return by far, up 11.5%.   "Investor money has come in to some of the hard-hit markets like Phoenix and Florida cities," said Mike Larson, a real estate analyst with Weiss Research.   That has helped stabilize housing by shrinking inventory.   

An ongoing change in the mix of homes sold may be contributing to improving prices, according to Stan Humphries, chief economist for real estate website Zillow. Fewer homes are going as foreclosures, which banks discount heavily to move quickly.  Short sales are claiming a bigger market share, according to David Crowe, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders. They're often in better condition than foreclosures and the selling process plays out more like conventional sales. Prices, as a result, are higher for short sales.  The strength of the gains was unexpected. A panel of experts put together by Briefing.com had projected a year-over-year decline of 1.8% but the big jump in May prices led to the more modest 0.7% dip.   Larson pointed out that Case-Shiller is a lagging housing market indicator. It is a three-month rolling average through the end of May, so some of the data is almost five months old. Back then, the overall economy seemed to be on the upswing and unemployment was dropping.   Those improvements have flattened out. The unemployment rate actually ticked up in May to 8.2% and stayed at that level in June.  "Momentum will fade as we enter the summer months," said Larson. "The broad economy can't seem to generate much growth."  Crowe said that there has also been a fundamental change in market confidence. Buyers are beginning to believe the market has hit bottom and that the time to buy is now, especially with mortgage rates at historic lows.  Humphries said there could be ups and downs during the next six months, but buyers should not be overly concerned about that.  "This will be a function of seasonality in the share of sales that are foreclosures, which will rise as overall sales decline in the fall and winter," he said. "Overall, we remain cautiously optimistic that home values are at a bottom nationally even while our expectations for price appreciation in the next couple of years are muted. "

U.S. Fixed Rate Mortgages Hit New Record-Breaking Lows

According to Freddie Mac's latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS), average fixed mortgage rates continuing to find new all-time record lows amid recent data showing less consumer spending and a contraction in the manufacturing industry. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has matched or hit a new record low in 10 of the last 11 weeks. The 1-year ARM also averaged a new record low this week.

Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist of Freddie Mac said, "Recent economic data releases of less consumer spending and a contraction in the manufacturing industry drove long-term Treasury bond yields lower over the week and allowed fixed mortgage rates to hit new all-time record lows. Growth in personal expenditures was revised downward to an annualized rate of 2.5 percent in the final GDP estimates for the first quarter of the year. In addition, monthly consumer spending in April was revised from a 0.3 percent gain to 0.1 percent and was unchanged in May. Finally, the Institute for Supply Management reported that manufacturing shrank in June, the first decline since July 2009."

30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.62 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending July 5, 2012, down from last week when it averaged 3.66 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.60 percent.

15-year FRM this week averaged 2.89 percent with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.94 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.75 percent.

5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.79 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, the same as last week. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.30 percent.

1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.68 percent this week with an average 0.5 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.74 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 3.01 percent.  

California's Low Listing Inventory Becomes an Issue as Home Sales Rise to Highest Levels in Three Years

Los Angeles, CA

(Los Angeles, CA) -- The California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.) reported today that California's housing market continued to improve in May, with home prices posting solid gains for the third straight month and home sales well above last year's pace.

"California home sales were strong in May, continuing the gradual recovery of the California housing market," said C.A.R. President LeFrancis Arnold. "First-time buyers are recognizing that the housing market has hit bottom and are now seeing a sense of urgency to take advantage of ultra-low interest rates and advantageous home prices. Additionally, trade-up buyers are returning to the market after sitting it out for the past few years to get in on favorable home prices."

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California climbed 3.4 percent from April's revised 553,670 to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 572,260 in May, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local Realtor associations and MLSs statewide. May sales surged 21.5 percent from May 2011's revised 470,910 pace, marking the highest year-over-year sales increase since May 2009. The statewide sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2012 if sales maintained the May pace throughout the year and is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

The May 2012 sales pace was the highest since February 2009, when 598,770 homes were sold at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate.

Home prices appear to be stabilizing, with the median home price posting both month-over-month and year-over-year gains for the third consecutive month. The statewide median price of an existing, single-family detached home was $312,110 in May, the highest since September 2010.

May's price was up 1 percent from a revised $309,050 in April and 6.6 percent from a revised $292,850 recorded in May 2011. The May 2012 figure was 27.3 percent higher than the cyclical bottom of $245,230 reached in February 2009. The median price has posted above the $300,000 level for the second straight month after remaining below that mark for 15 months.

The increase in the median price can be attributed to the strong sales increase in the higher-priced coastal regions, particularly in the San Francisco Bay Area, where job growth is strong and the economy is growing faster than other areas of the state.

California's housing inventory sank lower in May, with the Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family detached homes dropping to 3.5 months in May, down from 4.2 months in April. May's housing inventory was down from a revised 5.7 months in May 2011. The index indicates the number of months needed to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate. A 7-month supply is considered normal.

Leslie Appleton-Young

"Low housing inventory continues to be the critical issue in the California market," said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. "Inventory levels have not been this low since December 2005, when the supply matched the current level. The Bay Area has the greatest shortage of homes for sale, with inventory levels in the two- to three-month range for Santa Clara, San Mateo, Alameda, and Contra Costa counties."

Interest rates continued their downward trend in May, with 30-year fixed-mortgage interest rates averaging 3.80 percent, down from 3.91 percent in April and 4.64 percent in May 2011, according to Freddie Mac. Adjustable-mortgage interest rates averaged 2.74 percent in May, down from 2.78 in April and 3.13 percent in May 2011.

Homes are moving faster on the market with the median number of days it takes to sell a single-family home dropping to 46.6 days in May, down from a revised 48.9 days in April and 52.0 days in May 2011.

Short Sales up in Q1 2012

Monday, June 4, 2012 — Short sales increased dramatically during the first quarter, rising 25% over year-ago figures and reaching a three-year high, according to foreclosure research firm RealtyTrac.
Homes acquired in pre-foreclosure, generally via short sales, grew 16% from the previous quarter to 109,521 pre-foreclosure sales and increased 25% from the first quarter of 2011.
Transactions involving all distressed property made up a larger portion of the homes sold in the first quarter of 2012 — 26% of all U.S. home sales in 1Q, up from 22% in the fourth quarter of 2011 and 25% from the year-ago period.
The average sales price of a home in foreclosure or bank-owned hit $161,214, down 1% from the previous quarter and down 2% from the first quarter of 2011. The price of homes in foreclosure is 27% below the average sales price of nondistressed home sales for the same month. That figure also is down from the 29% discount on foreclosures experienced in the first quarter a year earlier.
“Foreclosure-related sales picked up in the first quarter, particularly pre-foreclosure sales where a distressed homeowner is selling to avoid foreclosure — typically via short sale,” said Brandon Moore, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac.
“Those pre-foreclosure sales hit a three-year high in the first quarter even as the average pre-foreclosure sales price dropped to a record low for our report. Lenders are approving more aggressively priced short sales, which in turn is resulting in more successful short sale transactions.”

Short Sale Process Expected to Get Shorter

 

Tuesday, May 29, 2012 — The short-sale process is expected to get shorter starting June 15. New guidelines issued under the Federal Housing Finance Agency will require Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to give home buyers of short sales notice of their final decision within 60 days. The new guidelines also will require the mortgage giants to respond to initial short-sale requests within 30 days of receiving an offer from a potential buyer.
The speedier process is expected to be a boost to the housing market, Michael McHugh, president of the Empire State Mortgage Bankers Association, told the New York Times. Home buyers and sellers often have to wait months before they receive a decision from a lender on an offer for a short sale. Some deals fall apart just from the long wait alone.
Short sales have been increasing in recent months, as many lenders find them more appealing than foreclosures, which can be much more costly and take longer to remove from their books.
Short sales now outpace foreclosure sales in many parts of the country. Short sales represent more than 14 percent of existing-home sales, according to CoreLogic housing data from March, the most recent month available.

McHugh says that a faster short-sale process may be particularly helpful in speeding the recovery in judicial states, where foreclosures must go through the courts before they are approved. For example, in New York, judicial foreclosures can take a year or longer to be approved. Now short sales may be viewed by defaulting home owners as more of an option in avoiding foreclosure.
“There should be a significant improvement in the turnaround,” McHugh said regarding housing markets with judicial foreclosure processes.